Mr. Blagojevich, the twice-elected governor of Illinois, said he was flawed, insecure, vain and narcissistic.
Prone to risk or recklessness is another description he might have used. The former governor has, at almost every turn, bucked all legal conventional wisdom in favor of nonstop politicking.
Beginning shortly after his arrest in 2008 with appearances on every news, talk show and entertainment venue that would have him — prompting a veteran defense lawyer, Edward Genson, to walk away from the case — and culminating with his decision to testify, he seemed to be taking serious chances, lawyers who have followed the case say.
“I am fascinated by the train wreck that is this trial,” said Lisa Noller, a former federal prosecutor in Chicago who now does criminal defense work. “He has been on the circuit so long he doesn’t realize the inconsistent statements he’s made. He doesn’t realize the admissions he’s made.”
But the prosecutors know them very well, Ms. Noller said, adding that they have studied his every public utterance, whether from the lobby of the federal courthouse, the pages of his book, speeches to college students or his television and newspaper interviews.
“If there’s an inconsistency to be found, they’ll know what it is,” she said. “It wouldn’t surprise me that in his heart of hearts, he doesn’t believe he’s done anything wrong. It’s textbook narcissistic behavior. He winks and nods at the jurors. He says, ‘Hi, I used to be your governor.’ I think he believes he’s got a shot.”
Mr. Blagojevich is charged with 20 counts of corruption that allege he tried to trade official state action for personal gain, including the appointment to fill the Senate seat vacated by President Obama. In August at Mr. Blagojevich’s first trial, a jury found him guilty of one count of lying to federal authorities but could not reach a verdict on the more serious counts.
He has steadfastly maintained his innocence, saying he was merely negotiating his way through the political thicket of state politics, focused only on doing the people’s work.
The issue of pretrial publicity was raised early in the case, when Mr. Blagojevich’s lawyers complained that too many prospective jurors had negative preconceived notions about him.
Judge James B. Zagel of Federal District Court made pointed observations just before the jury was impaneled. “This is an unusual case in all respects,” he said, adding that in most high-profile criminal cases, the accused “sits quietly in prison.”
In this case, however, Mr. Blagojevich engaged in a “consistent pattern of inviting public opinion,” Judge Zagel said. “Much of the dilemma he faces was created by himself.”
Patrick Cotter, a former federal prosecutor turned defense lawyer, had a more colorful analogy. “He’s the Charlie Sheen of criminal defendants,” he said. “He goes out and does what he does. Half the world is amused and half the world is appalled.”
What Mr. Blagojevich is betting on, Mr. Cotter said, is that just one person on the jury will be amused or impressed. No matter how solid the prosecution’s case, if Mr. Blagojevich’s nice-guy polished narrative resonates emotionally with just one juror, the evidence may not matter.
“He’s a politician, and he was a good politician. You have to respect that,” Mr. Cotter said. “Is it a high risk? The fact is, when you decide what is high risk and what is not, you have to ask yourself, ‘Compared to what?’
“To flap your arms and think you’re going to fly is ridiculous. But if you’re falling out of a window anyway, you might as well flap.”
In high-profile cases, some jurors may get lost in the drama swirling around them and start thinking in ways that are inconsistent with the common sense that guides them in the real world, Mr. Cotter said.
Mr. Blagojevich intimated from the witness stand that what he was doing as governor was common in political circles. But Judge Zagel has ruled that prosecutors will be permitted to play a recording of a 2009 interview with Rachel Maddow of MSNBC, in which Mr. Blagojevich said he knew that trading a Senate seat for personal gain would be wrong and criminal.
“This is an admission,” Judge Zagel said of the interview. It shows what “the state of mind was of the defendant, who is a lawyer.”
The prosecution, which concluded its case last week, has to prove that Mr. Blagojevich knowingly and intentionally violated the law.
But the public’s attitude about politicians could create a situation where pretrial publicity might work in his favor, Mr. Cotter said.
“The best thing he has going for him is the unbelievable cynicism about elected officials,” he said. “Millions of citizens presume that all of their politicians are crooked. And because of that, when Rod Blagojevich says it’s just political horse-trading, some people will believe that a certain amount of it is inevitable and there’s something unfair about picking on one politician and not others.”
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