There is a big difference between what happened yesterday, the Arabs call Naksa Day, anniversary of the beginning of the six-day war and Nakba Day last month, marking the displacement of the Arabs when the State of Israel was established. Most significantly, now Israel's armed forces were prepared for the fighting at the Syrian border and the Golan Heights.
Northern command was not surprised Syrian protesters who try to cross into Israel, this time the preparation has prevented them from violating the border. But the difference in preparedness had little effect on the cost in human lives. As of 15 may, Arab demonstrators were killed yesterday by IDF fire.
Demonstrators passing the first line of Syria's border with Israel before trying to cut through a line of barbed wire and head of the Israeli Golan Heights, on 5 June 2011.
A cautionary note is necessary. The IDF has no real way to in real time, estimate the number of fatal accidents on the other side. But the Syrian Government-through its media has a clear interest in exaggerating the number of victims has limit events overshadow Syrian President Bashar Assad ongoing massacre of anti-government protesters. Yesterday, was killed by opposition forces, at least 35 Syrians of their own security forces during protests in the North. Over the weekend killed more than 70 across the country.
It was difficult to take seriously the accusations of Syrian TV an Israeli massacre at the same time as, day after day, the deaths caused by the Syrian Government ignored. Apparently at least some of the fatalities in the Golan Heights yesterday were injured by a fire in the Golan city of Quneitra a few hundred metres from the border and were not directly related to the IDF.
Still seemed the Israeli strategy designed to be counterproductive. The IDF is caught between two conflicting objectives: to prevent the border which broke and Israeli sovereignty from which fuel system failure on (but that is controversial in itself as the rest of the world do not recognize the Golan as Israeli soil), and keep the enemy casualties to a minimum when civilians. To the extent that yesterday's clashes can be assessed, retained command Northern great control over events. Snipers fired on the bones of those who tried to violate the border fence or identified as "main inciters" in the demonstration.
Unlike the Palestinians Nakba day save their energy for future conflicts. At least for now it seems the population in the West Bank not very enthused about the possibility of a third intifada. But if Israeli security forces will take a hard line in the territories, which are likely to change significantly.
The differences between the Syrian front and Palestinian front is directly related to the various interests of Syrian and Palestinian leaders. Assad is desperate to warm up the border, while the Lebanese leadership is not interested in taking unnecessary risks that could hurt tourism. As long as Syria sees continued confrontations as a way to deflect international pressure from Damascus, clashes continue in the coming weeks.
As September and Palestinian bid strategy that statehood is likely second further confrontations, as riots, meetings at the border fence, or even protest flotillas flyovers.
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